{
  "kind": "conditional_seat_simulation",
  "method": "relative_swing_dhondt_v1",
  "as_of": "2026-09-14",
  "baseline_year": 2023,
  "capacity_year": 2023,
  "support": {
    "sdp": 22.84,
    "kok": 16.62,
    "ps": 15.61,
    "kesk": 13.73,
    "vas": 11.99,
    "vihr": 8.27,
    "rkp": 3.97,
    "kd": 3.08,
    "liike": 2.05
  },
  "other_support": 1.8400000000000034,
  "seats": {
    "sdp": 52,
    "kok": 35,
    "ps": 34,
    "kesk": 29,
    "vas": 23,
    "vihr": 15,
    "rkp": 7,
    "kd": 3,
    "liike": 1
  },
  "aland": 1,
  "districts": [
    {
      "code": "VP01",
      "name": "Helsingin vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 23,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 6,
        "kok": 5,
        "ps": 2,
        "kesk": 0,
        "vas": 5,
        "vihr": 4,
        "rkp": 1,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP02",
      "name": "Uudenmaan vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 37,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 9,
        "kok": 9,
        "ps": 6,
        "kesk": 2,
        "vas": 3,
        "vihr": 3,
        "rkp": 3,
        "kd": 1,
        "liike": 1
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP03",
      "name": "Varsinais-Suomen vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 17,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 4,
        "kok": 3,
        "ps": 3,
        "kesk": 2,
        "vas": 4,
        "vihr": 1,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP04",
      "name": "Satakunnan vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 8,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 3,
        "kok": 1,
        "ps": 2,
        "kesk": 1,
        "vas": 1,
        "vihr": 0,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP05",
      "name": "Ahvenanmaan maakunnan vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 1,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 0,
        "kok": 0,
        "ps": 0,
        "kesk": 0,
        "vas": 0,
        "vihr": 0,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 1,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP06",
      "name": "Hämeen vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 14,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 5,
        "kok": 3,
        "ps": 3,
        "kesk": 1,
        "vas": 1,
        "vihr": 1,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP07",
      "name": "Pirkanmaan vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 20,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 7,
        "kok": 4,
        "ps": 3,
        "kesk": 2,
        "vas": 2,
        "vihr": 2,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP08",
      "name": "Kaakkois-Suomen vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 15,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 4,
        "kok": 3,
        "ps": 3,
        "kesk": 3,
        "vas": 1,
        "vihr": 1,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP09",
      "name": "Savo-Karjalan vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 15,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 4,
        "kok": 2,
        "ps": 2,
        "kesk": 4,
        "vas": 1,
        "vihr": 1,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 1,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP10",
      "name": "Vaasan vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 16,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 3,
        "kok": 2,
        "ps": 3,
        "kesk": 4,
        "vas": 0,
        "vihr": 0,
        "rkp": 3,
        "kd": 1,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP11",
      "name": "Keski-Suomen vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 10,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 3,
        "kok": 1,
        "ps": 2,
        "kesk": 2,
        "vas": 1,
        "vihr": 1,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP12",
      "name": "Oulun vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 18,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 3,
        "kok": 2,
        "ps": 3,
        "kesk": 6,
        "vas": 3,
        "vihr": 1,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    },
    {
      "code": "VP13",
      "name": "Lapin vaalipiiri",
      "capacity": 6,
      "seats": {
        "sdp": 1,
        "kok": 0,
        "ps": 2,
        "kesk": 2,
        "vas": 1,
        "vihr": 0,
        "rkp": 0,
        "kd": 0,
        "liike": 0
      },
      "aland": 0,
      "tie": false
    }
  ],
  "assumptions": [
    "2023 district capacities and geographic party profiles",
    "No electoral alliances; mainland minor parties win no seats",
    "Åland: one separate seat, no party assignment",
    "Exact quotient ties resolved by party id, not an official lot",
    "Point scenario only; no forecast probabilities or uncertainty intervals"
  ]
}