{
  "calibration_lag_days": 7,
  "computed_on": "2026-11-09",
  "description": "Gallupeista laskettu painotettu taso (puoliintumisaika 21 päivää), oletuksena että kannatus pysyy nykytasolla.",
  "election_date": "2027-04-18",
  "half_life_days": 21,
  "horizon_days": 160,
  "interval": {
    "calibration_elections": [
      2015,
      2019,
      2023
    ],
    "calibration_errors": 150,
    "calibration_window_days": [
      139,
      181
    ],
    "historical_mae_pp": 1.67,
    "level": 0.8,
    "method": "empirical",
    "q": 0.662,
    "unit": "half-width = q * sqrt(estimate), q in pp per sqrt(pp)"
  },
  "latest_poll_end": "2026-11-03",
  "model": "B0-v1",
  "parties": {
    "kd": {
      "estimate": 3.4,
      "high": 4.6,
      "low": 2.2
    },
    "kesk": {
      "estimate": 12.7,
      "high": 15.0,
      "low": 10.3
    },
    "kok": {
      "estimate": 16.0,
      "high": 18.6,
      "low": 13.3
    },
    "liike": {
      "estimate": 2.1,
      "high": 3.1,
      "low": 1.1
    },
    "others": {
      "estimate": 1.9
    },
    "ps": {
      "estimate": 16.2,
      "high": 18.9,
      "low": 13.6
    },
    "rkp": {
      "estimate": 3.9,
      "high": 5.3,
      "low": 2.6
    },
    "sdp": {
      "estimate": 23.0,
      "high": 26.2,
      "low": 19.8
    },
    "vas": {
      "estimate": 12.2,
      "high": 14.6,
      "low": 9.9
    },
    "vihr": {
      "estimate": 8.5,
      "high": 10.5,
      "low": 6.6
    }
  },
  "polls_used": 78,
  "publication_lag_days": 1
}